Florence

pennstate92
Posts: 311
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:33 am

Re: Florence

Postby pennstate92 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:01 pm

Carl Spackler wrote:I must interject at this junction of the scientific discussion. It is entirely my fault. We put our car in the garage recently and had the spark plugs changed, they were worn. New ignition wires were installed as were air cleaners and transmission oil and filter. All these changes improved the carbon butt print and now global warming will be a thing of the past so no one need be concerned anymore. Rest easy.

I would consider global cooling though, we went through that back in the 1970's and there were entire hour-long network info-propaganda shows (just like today) that asked the question: Will we freeze in the DARK?

Better buy your fleece, long johns, and gore-tex, down parkas while supplies are plentiful. History repeats so I hear.


I love this. I remember the global cooling scare of the late 1970s. There was an article in reader's digest that scared the living spit out of my preteen self. Never read Reader's Digest again! :lol:
If at first you don't succeed, give up. There is no hope for you.

psu_dad
Posts: 1725
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:15 pm

I have mixed feelings about this.

Part of me hopes the climate scientists are wrong, because we haven't got the political will or money to do any meaningful about it anyways and the long-term consequences sound dire. Part of me me hopes the climate scientists are right because I support the scientific method for understanding how the world works. And if this alleged warming trend reverses itself years from now and the climate scientists are wrong again, their credibility will go completely into the toilet. They'll be 3 rungs below astrologists on the I-Trust-You ladder.
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Blue&White
Posts: 2616
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Florence

Postby Blue&White » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:41 am

Regarding the NOAA article I posted:

Image

But, in seriousness, I still don't think it contradicts the basic point. NOAA is unwilling to commit to a causation without a smoking gun. I get that. Despite some ridiculous criticisim they took a few years ago on a scandal that never happened, I have a lot of respect for them as an organization and their insistence on absolute facts to support their positions. Unfortuantely, absolute facts are hard to come by in science.

But, what we do know, unequivocally, is that the planet is warming, oceans are rising, ocean temperatures ar rising, and hurricans feed off warmer water. Saying we don't have near certainty on the connection and we've only got causal evidence is not the same as saying there is not overwhelming evidence to support the proposition.

There have always been hurricans, nor'easters, typhoons, etc. But, they are showing up with increased ferocity year on year. How deep in the sand does someone have to bury their head to not see something is going on here. Growing up within 20 miles of the Jersey Shore, I remember as a kid hurricans coming up from the Florida and the Carolinas. By the time they hit NJ they were generally tropical storms and just dumped a lot of rain on us. On rate occassions we would get a Cat 1 storm roll in, which would slow down as soon as it hit land. We never got these massive storms like NJ has been hit with the past few years. And look at the storms hitting the gulf states and the southeastern US. They always got crushed by a big storm from time to time. It was not unheard of for a big storm to come in here and there. But, we are seeing them year after year now. We had 3 major ones last year.

Scientists may not be able to accurately predict the future, and there is always going to be some guess work as to what comes next. But, in terms of what is happening, I can't believe there is still a debate about it. And, as for dad's standard answer of it doesn't matter because we can't afford to do anything about it, my retort is "how much is this costing us"? The cost of repairs and clean up after the 2017 storms was billions. the total cost for the Atlantic hurricans was $282 billion (but that is not exclusive to damage done in the US - I'm not sure of the US total). Point is, it is rapidly getting to a point where we can't afford not to take it seriously.
Alex Cora sucks. Mickey Callaway sucks. Baseball sucks. Everything and everyone just sucks. Is it football season yet?

psu_dad
Posts: 1725
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:27 am

We never got these massive storms like NJ has been hit with the past few years.

Sure we did. You're just not old enough to remember them. There was a massive hurricane that clobbered New England in the 1930s (before hurricanes were named). Hundreds of people were killed. And one in the 1950s (Carol?) destroyed coastal RI and MA killed dozens of people. And that's just off the top of my head. If I took the time, I'm sure I could find dozens of hurricanes that devastated the northeast in the 19th and 20th centuries.

One thing that has absolutely exacerbated the problem over the decades from a financial perspective is massive home development in areas prone to flooding. Turns out there's a price to pay for a nice view of the water. Go figure.
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Carl Spackler
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Florence

Postby Carl Spackler » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:32 pm

Tagging onto dad, I remember the hurricanes back in the 60's but more recent generations think the hyperbole of the "news" telling them the sky is falling is accurate. It isn't. Everything cycles, warmer, cooler the come and they go. Those are weather cycles. I do remember hearing about some killer storms in the 30's and earlier in the 1900's. Those people had little to no warning unlike New Orleans back in 2005? They had a full week of notice to evacuate and many never did. Pretty sad or ?

It appears Florence's rain is still inhibiting life in the Carolina's. Do we have any members who have been known to be impacted? The inland rain really did a job on a lot of small town and rural locations.
So I got that going for me...which is nice. It's a cross between Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent and Northern California Sensimilla so you can play 36 holes on it,take it home at night and get stoned to the begesses belt

Blue&White
Posts: 2616
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Re: Florence

Postby Blue&White » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:10 am

Saw this morning that Michael is now a Cat 4 and is about to smash into the Florida panhandle. Looks like it is going to be the worst storm for that area in recorded history. And, they were saying that when it was just a Cat 2. But, sure, this probably doesn't have anything to do with the warming of the oceans. I'm sure all is well and it's just a freak occurrence. :roll:
Alex Cora sucks. Mickey Callaway sucks. Baseball sucks. Everything and everyone just sucks. Is it football season yet?

psu_dad
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Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:45 am

I'm sure the national media will eschew any hyperbole in reporting this. At least we can count on that.
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Blue&White
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Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Florence

Postby Blue&White » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:53 pm

Michael hit land an hour or so ago with 155 mph winds. I don't think you need hyperbole to describe that situation. It's going to be really bad. I really feel for those people.
Alex Cora sucks. Mickey Callaway sucks. Baseball sucks. Everything and everyone just sucks. Is it football season yet?

psu_dad
Posts: 1725
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:39 pm

It's extremely unusual for a storm that strong to hit the gulf coast, except for Hurricane Andrew (175 MPH) and Hurricane Irma (180 MPH) and Hurricane Katrina (175) MPH and ...

If you want to walk your dog on the beach every morning, that's great. But Mother Nature is going to kick your ass occasionally. She always has and she always will.
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hbendle
Posts: 100
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:48 am

Re: Florence

Postby hbendle » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:37 am

Small consolation that its strength faded quickly.
Other quoted stats I read mention that Michael is the #3 strongest at time of landfall, either by wind speed or pressure. Only behind 1969 Camille and 1935 Labor Day, as far as how strong it was when it hit land. Seems like an arbitrary metric, there's plenty of extreme devastation recorded from other storms that were strong, big, but technically weaker when they made landfall.