Florence

psu_dad
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:55 am

Seems like an arbitrary metric ...

"There are three types of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" - Samuel Clemens

No, I don't think statistics (or metrics) lie. But they both are routinely abused by people who don't understand how to interpret them properly or really don't care about a proper interpretation as long as the statistic/metric appears to support a point they're tying to make.

And you can't compare the "devastation" of contemporary hurricanes with past ones. Florida had a population of 1.9M in 1940. It's current population is around 21M. If MIchael strikes Florida in 1940, it's an entirely different outcome. Ten times the population means ten times the housing units and other infrastructure which, in turn, means ten times the "devastation"
Klaatu barada nikto

Blue&White
Posts: 2621
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Florence

Postby Blue&White » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:59 pm

You should pass all that on to the people in the panhandle who just lost everything. I'm sure the context of what happened to them will provide them with a huge feeling of relief.

In the meantime, the pictures out of Mexico Beach, Florida are incredible. But, serves them right for having "Mexico" in their name.
Is it baseball season yet?

psu_dad
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Mexico Beach is a perfect example of what I'm talking about.

You know who lived there in 1940? No one. Then, just after WW2, some developer bought a ton of land right on the beach and starting building homes. You want to live in a home right on the beach of the friggin Gulf shore (of all places), that's fine. Great. I'm sure the sunsets are neat. But don't expect me to weep and wring my hands when a hurricane kicks your ass.

If that makes me a bad person, then fine. I'm a bad person.
Last edited by psu_dad on Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Klaatu barada nikto

LioninVa
Posts: 674
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:49 am

Re: Florence

Postby LioninVa » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:29 pm

Hurricanes are a risk for people on the coast, everyone knows this. That's what they pay very high insurance.

Now, Michael was a thunderstorm a week ago. The models predicted growth based on the temperature of the water in the gulf. Except that the temps they were using were wrong as the actual temps were 4-6 degrees higher than average. That caused for more and faster strengthening as we all saw yesterday.

So, you and I may not live to see it, _dad, but someday a very strong hurricane will barrel into New England rather than the mid-atlantic or somewhere in Aprill or December because the water is getting warmer faster. That is what fuels these things.

psu_dad
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:20 pm

Well, I'll definitely live to see the next hurricane to clobber Florida.

Since records were kept in the mid-1800s, Florida has been hit by 229 tropical storms and/or hurricanes, an average of more than one a year. As states go, there isn't a close second. Most of the other states high on the list are on the Gulf of Mexico ... except North Carolina, because it's belly sticks out into the Atlantic.
Klaatu barada nikto

LioninVa
Posts: 674
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:49 am

Re: Florence

Postby LioninVa » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:54 pm

Of course, Florida has much more coastline as well, which is also a factor. I mean, no hurrican is going to slam in to Nebraska, right? My point is that we are seeing them earlier and later in the season and storms of the century are occurring every year or so. Some of that may be media hype but some is a factor of warmer water.

Blue&White
Posts: 2621
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Florence

Postby Blue&White » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:19 pm

Mexico Beach is a perfect example of what I'm talking about.

It's really not, though. That area has never really been hit before. Not like that. You made the argument earlier that I just don't remember all the hurricanes that have hit the areas. You're right, I don't. But, it's fact that we are seeing more of these monster storms and they are hitting with more frequency. I get that scientists are not yet ready to cause a direct cause/effect between the increase power of these storms and climate change, but that's because they can't prove that direct causal link. And, despite the claims this is all "junk science", it's not and actual scientists are only willing to state as fact that which they can prove is a fact. But, the correlations are frightening. And, it's horrifying that it is not being taken near serious enough.

Secondly, people have alway lived by the ocean. Always. I don't get the argument of "screw them, they should have known better" .
Is it baseball season yet?

psu_dad
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Florence

Postby psu_dad » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:37 pm

We disagree. And we're not ever going to agree.

Without even researching this, I'd bet my house that the area of the Florida panhandle in which Mexico Beach is located has been hit by numerous bad hurricanes over the years. And I still contend that the perception that this is getting worse is mostly a function of increased media coverage and increased housing development in vulnerable areas. Any hurricane hitting Mexico Beach prior to 1950 would just have inconvenienced a couple of hermit crabs.

Time will tell, I suppose. It's not like we're going to do anything about it.

PS - Jeezus Krist. The Giants stink.
Klaatu barada nikto

LioninVa
Posts: 674
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:49 am

Re: Florence

Postby LioninVa » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:30 am

The center of Michael passed just south of us last night and took out a transformer so our power has been out since midnight. Roughly half a million without power in the region so my hope is they get it back on before tomorrow afternoon...