Random Thoughts Again

Carl Spackler
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Carl Spackler » Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:18 pm

Dad is correct, it's the slippery slope argument and it happens all the time. The left has been advocation gun control forever it seems and an opportunity is what they love evidenced by their commentary in the two days since the murders. There are thousands of gun laws and the cities with the most laws seem to have the most murders by firearm a vast majority being hand guns. Rifles are rarely used by murderers. Banning AR's is not good unless you ban all semi autos and that is opposed by hunters. There are a vast number of rifles that employ magazines to feed either bolt action or semi auto rifles but because they are not painted black they escape the lefties who (not pointing to anyone here) continue the drum beat against a weapon and not the mental moron behind it. Not unlike the opiate issue where the doctor and patient are at fault while the street junkie is absolved apparently and the street trade is overlooked in spite of this being where the death rate soars. We need to keep our eye on the ball folks.

Blue&White
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Blue&White » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:00 pm

There are thousands of gun laws and the cities with the most laws seem to have the most murders by firearm a vast majority being hand guns.

I can't comment about the hand guns comment because I don't know. What I do know is that, despite what you hear constantly about cities like Chicago having the strictest gun laws and the highest murder rates, it's simply not true.

I'm not suggesting Chicago or DC should be proud but the idea that areas, like Birmingham, AL or Jackson, MS, that have much looser gun laws, are have fewer murders is just not true.

Carl Spackler
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Carl Spackler » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:10 pm

Oh, I see we are playing the murder / 100,000 population game again. Chicago is approaching 600 murders for the year (TRUE), #1 from what I know. I look a hard numbers, not numbers divided by other numbers. I don't think Chicago residents are impressed that suddenly St. Louis is #1 in murders with 188?
How 600 is less than 188 must be the new math that I hear about. ;)

LioninVa
Posts: 163
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:49 am

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby LioninVa » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:16 pm

But you have to consider per capita, Carl. It is a part of the fact. POTUS today used the good guy with a gun argument saying that he stopped hundreds more deaths which is probably not true because it was a very small town. They had a 25% injured or killed rate Sunday simply based on town population. But added to the metro or state it was much smaller.

Blue&White
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Blue&White » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:32 pm

Putting numbers into a statistical comparison to equalize them is not a "game". Sorry, but that is preposterous. Raw numbers tell you nothing. You need to have context to put in perspective. There are ~ 315,000 people in St. Louis. There are over 2,700,000 people in Chicago. You can't reasonably argue that 600 murders in a population of 2.7 million is worse than 188 murders in a population of 315,000. That is a huge statistical difference.

Sorry, but I completely disagree with your statement.

Jerry Garcia
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:13 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Jerry Garcia » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:49 pm

The referenced article also states that murder rates nationwide have come down significantly during the past 20 years, but have spiked in the past two. So there has been a steady decline in guns in America for 18 years, but now all of a sudden there is a bunch of new guns out there accounting for the murder spike? Uh, no.

psu_dad
Posts: 213
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby psu_dad » Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:52 pm

Mass may have banned bump-stocks but how much money does the NRA spend in MA?

Squat. I saw an interactive map on WaPo a couple of years ago. The vast (VAST) majority of NRA campaign contributions to congressional candidates go to Republicans. Spending money on a Republican congressional candidate in MA is a complete waste of money. I imagine the NRA targets their spending in states where there's a reasonable balance of pro/anti gun people among the citizenry, in order to help tilt the balance in their favor. There is no balance here. We send anti-gun Democrats to Washington, exclusively.

I might suggest you move here, but that would conflict with my grassroots campaign to change the motto of the MA Tourism Bureau to "Please Go Away".

Mrs psu_dad: How that's going?
Me: Not too well, unfortunately.
Last edited by psu_dad on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Blue&White
Posts: 447
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Blue&White » Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:03 pm

Don't worry, moving to Mass would run afoul of my policy to never move to a higher taxes area. It's not that PA has low taxes, but they are lower than Mass. So, you're safe, at least from me.

Carl Spackler
Posts: 91
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:22 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby Carl Spackler » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:16 am

Blue&White wrote:Putting numbers into a statistical comparison to equalize them is not a "game". Sorry, but that is preposterous. Raw numbers tell you nothing. You need to have context to put in perspective. There are ~ 315,000 people in St. Louis. There are over 2,700,000 people in Chicago. You can't reasonably argue that 600 murders in a population of 2.7 million is worse than 188 murders in a population of 315,000. That is a huge statistical difference.

Sorry, but I completely disagree with your statement.


Tell that to the families of the over 400 more deaths in Chicago. I think they will disagree. To argue that more deaths is insignificant is mind bending.

psu_dad
Posts: 213
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:59 pm

Re: Random Thoughts Again

Postby psu_dad » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:39 am

There are over 2,700,000 people in Chicago. You can't reasonably argue that 600 murders in a population of 2.7 million is worse than 188 murders in a population of 315,000. That is a huge statistical difference.

There can be problems with using bulk statistics.

I read somewhere that "a child born in the USA has a 55% probability of attending college". This is nonsense, of course. It may be that 55% of children attend college, but that says nothing about the probability of any one child. My children had nearly a 100% probability of attending college. Some less fortunate children have a much lower probability. The net result is that 55% end up in college.

In this case, diluting the murder statistics in Chicago muddies the water, also. I'm sure there are parts of Chicago that are extremely safe. But I wouldn't rely on that city-wide murder rate if contemplating a move to the south side of Chicago. That may not end well for you.