Politics

Crowbar
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Re: Politics

Postby Crowbar » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:28 am

Blue&White wrote:

One thing about the Trump presidency - it ain't boring.


No it ain't.

It is truly the ultimate TV reality show. Love him or hate him, we are all transfixed by him.

That's why he will win in 2020.

That and the Dems will be their typical stupid selves and throw some unlikable left-wing gasbag up there to run against him.
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Blue&White
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Re: Politics

Postby Blue&White » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:34 am

That's why he will win in 2020.

I think whether he wins or loses will be dependend on the economy. He's taking a lot of chances. But, the market is booming. If things are good financailly in November 2020, the majority of people won't care about all the other bullshit and will vote for him. If things are not good in November 2020, he's out. I don't think any of this other bluster will matter.
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Blue&White
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Re: Politics

Postby Blue&White » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:49 am

One other thought on both 2020 and even the 2018 midterms - in 2016 Hillary Clinton carried 51% of white women with at least a 4 year degree. Only 51%. Given all the TV outrage about "grab her by the pussy" and what not, it's pretty amazing that it was that low (and really highlights how shitty a candidate Hillary Clinton was) but the exit polls put it at 51%. Trump carried white women without college degrees by 61%. So, the obvious conclusion from this is that women were not nearly as bothered by Trump back in 2016 as the talking heads would have liked you to believe.

But, that was 2016. Amongst whites, college educated women is the only growing demographic. All others are shrinking. And, per the polls, they really, really don't like Trump. And, this Kavanaugh stuff is further driving the wedge. 61% of white college educated women said they believed Ford and 58% said Kavanaugh should not be confirmed. That's a big majority.

I still think when all is said and done the economy is going to (pardon the use of the word) trump all other factors. But, I'm sure you are all familiar with the phrase "hell hath no fury like a woman scorned". If the Republicans keep losing educated white women, it's going to be a lot more dificult to win elections. That's just a fact of current demographics.

We'll see what happens come this November. If I had to put money on it right now, I'd say the Dems take the House and the Republicans keep the Senate. The Dems may gain a seat, but I'm not convinced of even that. I'd be suprised if they took the majority, though.
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PSUgrower
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Re: Politics

Postby PSUgrower » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:21 pm

I wrote Toomey last night voicing my displeasure if he decides to vote for Kavanaugh. He wrote back with a very generic response that I already read in the paper. I will be absolutely baffled if Kavanaugh makes it in. How in the hell can we nominate a Supreme Court Judge who lied under oath!!! Any thoughts on the FBI investigating at some point if he is confirmed to find perjured on the stand?

Blue&White
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Re: Politics

Postby Blue&White » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:53 pm

Once he's on, why would the FBI investigate him again? The opportunity to find grounds for a perjury charge is now. If they don't do it now, it's not going to happen at any point in the future.
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sameoldlama
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Re: Politics

Postby sameoldlama » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:15 pm

Everybody involved in this whole fiasco gave their share of half truths - Kavanaugh, the accusers, senate members, the press - the truth is somewhere in between.
These nominations no longer have anything to do with whether the judge is qualified for the position - it is the perception of whether they will rule favorably on potentially sensitive political issues like abortion. This circus has nothing to do with truth - with perhaps a few exceptions every vote was cast before a nominee was even named - it was just a game of whether the Ds could hang enough scandal on Kavanaugh to flip a few votes and posture for mid terms. King Solomon and Lady Justice could have a child who became a judge and if Trump nominated them Chuck Schumer would resist the nomination every step of the way.

The fact that several people commented Trump should have nominated a female speaks volumes - it wouldn't be necessarily because she would be more qualified but because it would be political suicide for the Dems to attack a female nominee the way they have Kavanaugh. This is the what identity politics produces.

But don't worry guys there will not be a Trump 2020 - it's not Russia, it's not the affairs with women - it's the personal financial malfeasance - sooner or later the never ending resources, with never ending time will catch up to some financial crime he has committed in his past. If it is not in the next two years I think even he would have the sense not to tempt fate for another four.
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PSUgrower
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Re: Politics

Postby PSUgrower » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:27 pm

Blue&White wrote:Once he's on, why would the FBI investigate him again? The opportunity to find grounds for a perjury charge is now. If they don't do it now, it's not going to happen at any point in the future.

True, but say he gets voted in and in 2020 a Democrat is elected. The only way to get Kavanaugh off the supreme court would be to find him guilty of some sort of crime. He lied under oath about all of his drinking and what not. Again, I don't give a rats ass that this guy drank in high school and college, but the guy lied under oath. He committed perjury and he is a judge. I would feel the same way if this guy was a Democrat.

I am waiting on what will come out about the FBI investigation so I am not even going there at the moment

Blue&White
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Re: Politics

Postby Blue&White » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:53 pm

sameoldlama wrote:Everybody involved in this whole fiasco gave their share of half truths - Kavanaugh, the accusers, senate members, the press - the truth is somewhere in between.


You have no way of knowing that, though. There is no evidence that Ford lied about anything. There is, however, plenty of at least anecdotal evidence Kavanaugh lied about a lot. And people were begging to talk to the FBI and were not contacted. Given that lying to the FBI is a crime that people have gone to jail for, I doubt those people were putting their hands up to risk jail time.

sameoldlama wrote:These nominations no longer have anything to do with whether the judge is qualified for the position - it is the perception of whether they will rule favorably on potentially sensitive political issues like abortion. This circus has nothing to do with truth - with perhaps a few exceptions every vote was cast before a nominee was even named - it was just a game of whether the Ds could hang enough scandal on Kavanaugh to flip a few votes and posture for mid terms. King Solomon and Lady Justice could have a child who became a judge and if Trump nominated them Chuck Schumer would resist the nomination every step of the way.


I generally agree with this. But, the problem isn't that the Dems tried to hang a bunch of scandals on Kavanaugh. The problem is there were scandals to hang. None of this happened when Gorsuch was nominated. And, while I realize that there was little hope of preventing Trump from putting someone on the court after the election, from a judicial perspective he is far, far worse for liberals and progressives than Kavanaugh is likely to be. And, no one attacked anything about him personally. Yes, his judicial credentials were attacked, but no one attacked his character. Meanwhile, Kavanaugh claimed, under oath, that he never heard of any of this before people came out accusing him and we now know he was trying to get out in front of the 2nd accusation back in July. You don't want your nominee to be held up as a sex offender, don't nominate someone who can be held up as a sex offender. It's not that complicated.

sameoldlama wrote:But don't worry guys there will not be a Trump 2020 - it's not Russia, it's not the affairs with women - it's the personal financial malfeasance - sooner or later the never ending resources, with never ending time will catch up to some financial crime he has committed in his past. If it is not in the next two years I think even he would have the sense not to tempt fate for another four.


If the New York Times article from the other day is accurate .... still nothing will happen. People are no longer going to be swayed by silly things like facts. Everyone has made up their minds about Trump, one way or another.

Grower - once he's on, you have to assume he's on. Nothing is going to change. And, based on what the Republicans are saying about the FBI report that was secretly released today, he's getting confirmed tomorrow.
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LioninVa
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Re: Politics

Postby LioninVa » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:01 pm

I believe it’s a done deal like B-Dub said. I also agree with lama on the process. But Chris is right that Judge K probably perjured himself in the hearing last week, if not initially. None of that matters for most of us Average Joes because our voice ends on Election Day.

I personally believe the FBI thing was a joke from the beginning but was hoping it would be more serious. Not in this day an age. Grassley bitched that this process has taken 80+ days longer than the average of the previous four but he neglected to include Garland I think. Had they given him a hearing, fair or not, this one might have been different. Or not, I don’t know.

PSUgrower
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Re: Politics

Postby PSUgrower » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:59 pm

I am massively disturbed that this man lied under oath and republicans are fine with this. I am truly lost in the politics of this country. We don't care that a president grabs women by the pussy, we don't care that a possible Supreme Court Judge lied under oath or possibly sexually assaulted a woman, we don't care that the president lied about how he got his money, we don't care... I give up. Politics sucks and I hate them all and have zero faith!