The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:27 pm

I skimmed the article. I didn't see anything about trade wars. I saw that GM decided there was no point in continuing to make sedans no one wants, so they're closing the plants that make them. Fat-ass SUVs. That's what people want.

PS - I'm getting a sinking feeling that this morning's bump in the DJIA was just a tease.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:43 pm

I skimmed the article. I didn't see anything about trade wars.

That article doesn't mention it but there are other articles that talk about the impacts on GM's costs structure due to the rising prices of some of the commodities they use in production, predominately, steel and aluminum. I read this as something that GM probably would have done anyway but whether or not the hit on jobs would be as severe is an open question. I can't see how the tariffs didn't hurt them, though. There was the story back in October how Ford lost $1B in profits. There is no chance that GM is immune from that.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:49 pm

There was the story back in October how Ford lost $1B in profits.

That was a comment made by the Ford CEO (James "Pantload" Hacket). And it's not how much they've lost, it's his projection on how much they will lose by the end of 2019. That's based on (a) the tariff-induced manufacturing cost increase of about $200 per car, (b) the number of cars Ford manufactures in the U.S. and (c) the assumption that Ford will eat most of the price increase rather than passing it all onto the consumer (as if).

Given the choice of continuing to let China screw us over in trade matters or paying $200 more for a car, I'd rather pay $200 more for a car.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:58 pm

Given the choice of continuing to let China screw us over in trade matters or paying $200 more for a car, I'd rather pay $200 more for a car.

I've said a number of times that I think Trump is probably right about how China takes advantage of us. I think the problem is his execution and that he can't STFU and build the consensus he needs to do what he's doing. And, it's questionable if a tariff is going to be effective. Or, more to the point, if it's going to hurt China more than it does us. I don't think it will for reasons I've stated several times before.

It's a conundrum. There is no great answer. Trump is trying to play a long term game here but he's kiling the people who voted for him and supported him the most. He's answerable to voters and the Democrats are not going to help him. Our hyper partison politics are definetely working to our collective disadvantage because trade with China has some real issues and there is going to be some pain if we want to solve it. Maybe it would help if Trump could find a way to not be a total douchebag all the time but, in fairness, I don't think even if "behaved" the Democrats would cooperate. But he is just so polarizing that he makes it very dificult to rally around him.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:48 pm

If Trump is doing something he believes is right and it hurts him politically, then he deserves credit for that. The easiest way to handle this problem would be to do nothing, which is what his predecessors have done.

He's probably not going to convince many in Congress to support him on this for a couple of reasons: (1) He can't play nice. (2) It's a hard sell to convince members of Congress that this will help them remain in office. It's too long and potentially painful a course of action. And remaining in office is all those pantloads care about.
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LioninVa
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby LioninVa » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:54 pm

My father in law is a staunch conservative who couldn't bring himself to vote for Trump. He likes the trade move again at China but really disability the actions against Canada and Europe. For the most part, I agree.

As for support from the left, Chuck Schumer had a deal with President T in the first year that conceded the wall money but one of his administration, Matt is or Kelly, convinced him it was too liberal and he backed out. Had that gone through, I think other deals would have been possible but we will never know now.

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:20 pm

Lion - the deal you refer to was the DACA deal. Schume rand Pelosi said they cut a deal with Trump where he agreed to give the Dreamers permanent legal status. He claims that deal never existed and who knows what is true. My guess is he did agree and then someone told him it would be political suicide with his base and he scrapped it. It doesn't help him that he repeated this "and Mexico is going to pay for it!" BS all throughout the campaign.

Dad -

If Trump is doing something he believes is right and it hurts him politically, then he deserves credit for that.

I think that depends. I think it hurts him politically. I don't know that he thinks it hurts him politically. He always seems to think he knows better. So, it's tough to say he's taking a stand here on princible. Maybe he is, but it seems out of character for him to do anything where he thinks it is hurting him.

I agree with your points about why he won't get support in Congress, though. I'll say it again - the Chinese leadership doesn't respond to voters because they do not have any. I guess they do have to worry about civil unrest if things get too bad, but I think we are a long, long way off from that being any kind of an issue. We'll see how things play out, I guess.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:15 pm

I was staring at a real-time chart of the DJIA this afternoon. And it started to go up. And the more I stared, the more it went up. And up. I think I'm on to something.

Mrs psu_dad: Staring?
Me: Mind control.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:06 pm

Image
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:12 am

Once it was announced that there was a "truce" between Trump and China on the trade wars for a few weeks, Dow futures instantly started to climb. Market up over 200 points today.

If you need some validation as to one of the factors impacting the continued fall of the DOW, I think you just got it. I don't believe the trade stuff is the sole factor, and given this moratorium on new tariffs is temporary I don't expect big swings in the market over it, but it's interesting how there was an instant reaction to it.
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