The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:19 pm

And ..... we're in the red.
Is it baseball season yet?

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:10 pm

Really in the red.....
Is it baseball season yet?

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:51 pm

I've stopped looking at the overnight numbers. They're meaningless. The market is so crazy volatile, that any overnight gain (or loss) can be erased in the first half-hour of day trading.
Klaatu barada nikto

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:15 pm

Down over 200 points.

Image
Is it baseball season yet?

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:14 pm

Well, the stock market is closed Monday afternoon and Tuesday. So there's that.

Plus, several years from now when I turn 70, the IRS will compel me to take a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) out of my IRA every year, whether or not I need that much to live on. This is because the IRS wants their piece of my retirement savings and they can't get it until/unless I pull the money out. Since the RMD is based on the size of my IRA, it's now been lowered somewhat. So there's that, too.
Klaatu barada nikto

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:24 pm

Given the events of the day I think it's tough to blame the fed for this ongoing slaughter. Powell made comments this morning to try to ease the tension on interest rate hikes and seriously walked back his previous comments about multiple rate hikes coming over the next year. And, right after that the market soared for half a day - and then everyone bailed.

It really is impossible to look at any one day of results, or even any one week or month, and say "that is what is causing [a rise or fall] of the markets". But, the anecdotal evidence is that it's not the Fed, or not just the Fed. I'm sure it's a combination of things, some of which are obvious and some are not.

Whatever - I'm glad I am just going to be 50 in January. I have years to ride this out.
Is it baseball season yet?

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:42 pm

Even at my age, I take a long view of this stuff. In 2016 and 2017 (combined) the DJIA rose 38.5%. If we end up with a -10% correction this year, that's 28.5% over three years. I'll take that any time. I'm going with the explanation that stocks just became over-priced, relative to the economy. The economy is sound, but not growing as fast as people would like. And it's not projected to grow faster next year.

As for the stock market next year, I've had the financial news shows on in my office the last few days. There isn't much consensus on what is going to happen next year, other than no one seems to be predicting a big year for the market.
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PSUgrower
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby PSUgrower » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:24 pm

Can you guys let me know when I should invest in Dow Jones stocks? I want to wait until it bottoms out

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:23 am

As for the stock market next year, I've had the financial news shows on in my office the last few days. There isn't much consensus on what is going to happen next year, other than no one seems to be predicting a big year for the market.

I keep reading a lot of forecasts for a recession. The growth is slowing, the job market is slowing down and inflation is rising. None of these are great signs. I suspect this is a lot of what the market is reaction to. Trying to predict the future and bet on it is a good way to lose money so I won't pretend to know what is going to happen, but there does seem to be some early warning signs of coming problems.
Is it baseball season yet?

Blue&White
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Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:01 am

Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:42 am

So, over the weekend Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin called a bunch of CEOs to tell them not to worry as the markets were functioning properly and the banks had plenty of liquidity to lend money. The problem was no one was focused on these issues or thought it was a concern.

They sure do now, though, which probably explains why the market opened down over 200 points. Nice job, Steve.
Is it baseball season yet?