The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:55 am

Mis-using this data to scare people is the job of our illustrious media.

In fairness to the media, this is a topic that should frighten people. There are a number of sources that talk about the aveage retirement savings in this country and all of them show the numbers are dismal. Here is one from earlier this year that I like because it outlines all its sources. And, it deals with more than just 401ks.

It's a bleak and troubling story. A lot of people are going to have a lot of challenges retiring or simply run up a ton of debt that can never be paid off - which is going to impact the next generation who will have to absorb that cost. I think blaming the media for using data to paint a bleak picture of what is a bleak situation is unfair.

Lion - I figured you were covered by a military pension after serving more than 20 years. But, I am honestly shocked it's only $1,500 a month.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:13 am

For the record, I didn't mean to imply that the situation isn't bleak. My main point was that the Vanguard data (a) is of limited utility and (b) it's not published by Vanguard for the purpose of frightening people.

The people with Vanguard 401ks are not the biggest problem, even those with small balances. Somewhere between 30-40% (depending on who you believe) of the workforce has saved NOTHING for retirement. They're apparently going to rely solely on Social Security.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:37 am

I think we are in violent agreement. Those Vanguard numbers are a symptom but not a cause and not really a fair representation as the actual numbers may be worse.
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LioninVa
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby LioninVa » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:44 am

My retirement take home is around 1500, after all the deductions. A retiree at 20 years gets 50% of their base pay. If you stay longer, you add 2.5% per year maxing at 75%. But there are high year tenure limits for the different ranks/pay grades. As an E-6, I had to retire at 20 years. Of course, shortly after I did, they upped it to 22. Just my luck!

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:15 am

40% of Americans say recession is already here

I wasn't aware that things like whether or not we are in a recession was the subject of an opinion.

One interesting comment in that article, to me at least, was the one about how we can "talk" ourselves into a recession. I saw recently that the Consumer Confidence Indix was at its lowest point in 2 years. Maybe we can talk ourselves into a recession. The other interesting thing in this article for me is how the economic boom we keep hearing about isn't reaching everyone. I've mad this point before - much of the working and middle classa re not seeing the benefit. Savings rates in this country are abysmal. Retirement savings are even worse, and very frigthening. And, the debt load of the average American household is a major problem. If the econonmy does falter and we start to see unemployment again, things can get bad for a lot of people very quickly.
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LioninVa
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby LioninVa » Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:23 am

I firmly believed that Dick Cheney talked us into a recession when W took office. My brother (the conservative son) said that wasn’t possible and that the economy is more like a torture than a hare. He is singing a different song as the market continues its eight year path...
Last edited by LioninVa on Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:07 am

I wasn't aware that things like whether or not we are in a recession was the subject of an opinion.

Actually, I don't know if there's a formal/precise definition for a recession. It has attributes that most people agree upon, such as significant declines in GDP, employment, income, retail sales, etc. over an extended period of time. I don't think there are specific "numbers" that officially mean recession. but if/when these conditions occur for two or more consecutive quarters, most economists generally agree it's a recession.

What that survey actually discovered probably has nothing to do with a recession, as economists think of them. I doubt they asked each respondent if they knew what "recession" meant. Rather, the survey just discovered that 40% of the Americans they talked to weren't happy with their current financial situation.

But you probably know that and were just being snarky.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:27 am

Actually, I don't know if there's a formal/precise definition for a recession.

There actually is a formal definition: it's a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. I think the nuance is that not every economist will agree that just becuase that happened there is actually a "recession". I guess if GDP goes down in 2 successive quarters but unemployment doesn't increase, inflation doesn't increase, and things are generally flat (although the trend would be bad because people aren't spending) there is a question if that is really a recession. But, technically, it is.

It's going to be an interesting 16 months until the election. Trump took over when the eocnomy was in the midst of massive growth coming out of the 2008 financial fiasco. And, things have continued to rise on his watch. But, at some point things will change and reverse course. That's the nature of economies. What goes up will eventually go down. How long and how bad is an unknown, obviously. And, "when" is also an unknown. But, it will happen. Ultimately, I think this is what decides the 2020 election. If the economy continues to be strong, then i think all the other stuff about Trump gets ignored by just enough people and he wins another squeaker where he takes the electoral college but the popular vote is neck-and-neck (and I wouldn't be surprised if he loses it again). If the economy starts to falter, I think he's screwed and he loses in a landslide. People willing to hold their nose and vote for him when the economy is good are not going to do that if things turn around.

The Democrats better hope that China trade deal falls apart. That cold turn things around as farmers start to sell their crops again. If he nails that down, that will cement his support in the farm belt states, including places like Wisconsin.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:37 am

The Democrats better hope that China trade deal falls apart.

The Democrats are Americans. They should be hoping we can work out a fair deal with China.
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LioninVa
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby LioninVa » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:55 am

psu_dad wrote:The Democrats are Americans. They should be hoping we can work out a fair deal with China.


Normally, this would be a true statement, _dad, but these are not normal times. Our president considers democrats to be the enemy over actual foreign foes. I would say more, but will save it for the correct thread.