The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:36 pm

The only explanation for accepting a return of 1.6% (known as "chicken feed" in financial parlance) is suspicion that the stock market is going to go completely into the toilet.

That's pretty much what I predicted the other day.

And, I'm back to: what did you expect? It's impossible to say all of that has to do with the China trade war but it has to be a big part of it. The impact of that is more than just higher consumer prices. There is a whole cascade impact. This is probably the reason past president's have been circumspect about going head-to-head with China. They knew there were going to be impacts and they had concerns about the potential economic impact of it.

This is all speculation right now and who knows what is going to happen. Maybe Trump comes out on top and we are all winners with China begging for an opportunity to be more reasonable. Maybe. But, that's not where I'd put my money. I think I'd put my money on "both economies tumble into painful recession".

Like I said previously: it's a good thing trade wars are easy to win. Imagine if they were hard how potentially screwed we'd be?
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:13 pm

And, I'm back to: what did you expect?

Well, I certainly didn't expect people would be willing to lend money to Uncle Sam for ten years at 1.6% per. WTF? As a matter of principle, I'd rather pack my money into mason jars and bury them in the back yard. Not to mention I can do better than that with an FDIC-insured bank CD, without a 10-year commitment. I can also do better with AAA municipal bonds. One point six friggin percent? Meanwhile, my bank wants 5% for me to borrow against my home's equity? And they can't lose because they're either getting their money back or they're getting the house.

I'm missing something.
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Blue&White
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby Blue&White » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:36 pm

I don't fully get that either, to be honest. I can't explain it.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:27 am

From what I've been reading, the global bond market is a mess. The bonds being issued by many countries have yields even lower than those offered by the U.S. Treasury. Many have yields close to "diddly-squat". I wonder if the demand for U.S. treasury bonds is coning from overseas?

I need you to help me contact Craig Carton's old business partner.
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PittGradPSUMad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby PittGradPSUMad » Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:09 pm

Isn't he in jail, too?
Yeah, well, that's like your opinion, man.

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:24 pm

I mis-spoke. I didn't mean "partner". I meant the strip club owner / loan shark that Carton was involved with. I'm looking to put my money on the street and maybe he can help me. I may need to hire a leg-breaker, though. Maybe I can find one on ZipRecruiter.
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psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:08 am

This could get ugly. I don't think mind control will work today. My head would probably explode.
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PittGradPSUMad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby PittGradPSUMad » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:45 am

Warren Buffet advises us to invest in low-cost index funds such as ones that mimic the SP500....forget market timing, ignore the noise and ignore all advice including his (except for the index fund part). I'm already there. Besides, what does he know?
Yeah, well, that's like your opinion, man.

psu_dad
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Re: The Ongoing New Financial Era Thread

Postby psu_dad » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:12 pm

I agree with Buffet (but then again, what do I know). Buffet claims that in the long run, stocks should return an average annual rate of about 7%. In the long run, I've found that to be true. I've never tried to "time" the market.
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