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College Football Playoff National Championship

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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby scottopus » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:16 pm

The reason I took the time to research the CFP process and facts (which I shared here) was to understand if Penn State was being treated unfairly. The biggest problem I’m having is coming to grips with the committees absolute love affair with OSU. We all know how impressive an OSU teams can be but I’m just not seeing it this year. I can only attribute it to them having only one loss in a conference the committee has a lot of respect for. OSU also has the biggest out of conference win with that smack down they put on the Sooners in Oklahoma early in the season. I don’t know how much it was the lousy Big 12 or how good they are. The Big 12 as a whole is 2-6 (WV beat @Missouri & OSU beat Pitt) verse the other power 5 conferences this year.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby gmay10 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:16 pm

We are being treated unfairly at the moment. If we win we should be in the top 4- end of story! I am surprised by this team too but that doesn't mean I am going to let the committee give it to me raw. The one benefit is that the committee will be watching all of the conference championships. Come on Condi!!!
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby scottopus » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:49 pm

The only case I can see that we’re being unfairly treated is being below Wisconsin. One can assume that we’re in the same margin (two loss big ten team). So let follow the protocol principles:

Championships – Not played yet
Strength of Schedule – Wisconsin (see below)
Penn State (Win/Loss method: 34th & Sagarin ratings: 39th)
Wisconsin (Win/Loss method: 6th & Sagarin ratings: 20th)
Head to Head – Not Played Yet
Comparative outcomes – Penn State (PSU beat Ohio State who beat Wisconsin)
Relevant Factors – Penn State
Metrics – Penn State (see below)
Penn State
2-1 vs Top 10 (L @Michigan, W vs Ohio State, W vs Wisconsin)
2-2 vs Top 25 (L @Pitt)
7-0 vs .500 Teams (Temple, Minnesota, Maryland, OSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Wisconsin)
Wisconsin
0-2 vs Top 10 (L @Michigan, L vs Ohio State)
5-0 vs .500 Teams (LSU, @Iowa, Nebraska, @NW, Minnesota)

One can assume that the committee is giving Wisconsin the edge based on Strength of Schedule and the out of conference win verse LSU since all the other indicators show Penn State. I also think they’re getting carryover from jumping into the rankings in week 2 (AP 10th, Coaches 16th) and being ranked 11th in both polls before the CFP rankings.

Being below Michigan is a non-point since they win all principles against us.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby Blue&White » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:58 pm

Being below Wisconsin is irrelevant. That will be sorted out Saturday night.

I think this comes down to a point someone, maybe Southern, made earlier: it's really tough to say which of the top 7 teams are really the best 4. They haven't all played each other and they dealt with different injuries during the season. We are not the same team now that got blown out by Michigan. The Michigan team that lost to OSU played them very close and without their starting QB. Clemson lost to Pitt at home and we lost to Pitt on the road. Who are the best 4? I have no idea.

The early season polls seem to carry the day. The CFP committee gave a lot of deference to the earlier AP and Coaches polls. They may say they aren't influenced by the polls but they clearly are.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby gmay10 » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:31 pm

I agree with Bdub. The Whisky-PSU will get figured out on Saturday. I am just pissed about the whole Michigan thing. Scott, I don't agree that Michigan wins on all principals against us. The committee keeps saying they will take the best 4 but MU lost their last 2 of 3. They lost to a Iowa team that we crushed. OSU barely beat an MSU team that we just crushed. The only principal where Michigan wins is the biased against PSU this year.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby Carl Spackler » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:20 pm

I feel like I'm in a time machine and the date is 1969. PSU has completed 2 consecutive undefeated seasons and ranked 2nd at seasons end. The arguments are strength of schedule, "resume", etc. When we allow people to make subjective decisions, some with a bias for or against various factors such as preseason ranking (bunk) or how many points scored in blowouts of helpless prey.

We need a real playoff, I'd settle it at 16 teams in a perfect world which is 25% of the NCAA basket ball tournament team count for a start but would consider 8 as a fall back position. Use a computer ranking from objective data gathered through the season. Things like improvement as the season moved forward can be programmed into the formula. Frankly any data that is a positive factor in ranking a team can be placed in a formula. We need to get away from the biased mental propensity of having a pannel or committee chose teams. Put their feedback into the formula. Let the program rank the teams, seed the teams and set the playoff schedule. I'm not here to suggest all the data needed, just that people's bias needs to be eliminated as much as can be.

With the top 16 teams there is minimal potential of a deserving team being passed over in the playoff. It would take four weekends to accomplish which could be staggered from pre Christmas like bowls having the Super weekend finale in mid Jan so class participation is minimally impacted. If your team can make it though the tournament it IS the NC.

My 2 cents......inflation adjusted.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby scottopus » Thu Dec 01, 2016 5:25 pm

My last statement for Wisconsin and Michigan is based on last weeks results.

Here's the breakdown of the principles for us winning this weekend:
Championships – Penn State
Strength of Schedule – Push
Penn State (Win/Loss method: 34th & Sagarin ratings: 39th)
Michigan (Win/Loss method: 78th & Sagarin ratings: 33th)
Head to Head – Michigan
Comparative outcomes – Penn State (PSU beat Ohio State who beat Michigan)
Relevant Factors – Penn State
Metrics – Slight Michigan
Penn State
2-1 vs Top 10 (L @Michigan, W vs Ohio State, W vs Wisconsin)
2-2 vs Top 25 (L @Pitt)
7-0 vs .500 Teams (Temple, Minnesota, Maryland, OSU, Iowa, @Indiana, Wisconsin)
Michigan
3-1 vs Top 10 (L vs Ohio State, W vs Colorado, W vs Penn State, W vs Wisconsin)
7-1 vs .500 Teams (L @Iowa, Hawaii, UCF, Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Indiana)

Our conference Championship trumps the head to head and slight Metric advantage.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby Blue&White » Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:11 am

Convincing win by Washington last night. Drat. Clemson losing is our last hope.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby SouthernLion » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:00 am

And a thin hope it is. So be it.

Go Lions!


EDIT - If Washington's impressive win serves to screw UM from the top 4, I'm pleased with outcome. Our chances were/are close to nil going in anyway.
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Re: College Football Playoff National Championship

Postby PittGradPSUMad » Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:19 pm

SouthernLion wrote:And a thin hope it is. So be it.

Go Lions!


EDIT - If Washington's impressive win serves to screw UM from the top 4, I'm pleased with outcome. Our chances were/are close to nil going in anyway.


What SL said. I would rather see a good win by good guys tonight and go to a good New Years Day bowl against a team that we match up well against. The unlikely alternative would be to somehow get into the playoff tournament and get a sound ass-whomping from a team like Alabama that we are not yet ready to compete against. I don't like the optics of that scenario.

(Optics?......sheesh. Sound like a gawdammed politician.)
Yeah, well...you know...that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.
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