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The Trump Administration

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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby originalchas » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:28 pm

And if my wife ever caught me eating a half-dozen muffin tops slathered in butter, she would rat me out to my sons (the Health Nazis) and I'd never hear the end of it.


You have to die from something. It might as well be because of my consumption of vast quantities of muffin caps and butter. God help me, they are my heroin.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby reincarnatedlama » Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:30 pm

My something to die from is likely the vanity of not accepting my age. I will be trying to recapture past athletic and party glory by running the Las Vegas Rock N Roll Half Marathon (you run the Vegas strip at night and finish line is at Mirage / Venetian / Palazzo / Harrahs) and then I will party post race on the strip.

Two things a man with over a half century of miles on him probably shouldn't do individually much less on the same day.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby originalchas » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:07 pm

Perhaps even more than “Building the Wall”, Trump built his campaign message around the issue of correcting the negative economic impacts of the various trade deals that U.S. presidents have negotiated in the decades since NAFTA. His argument? Auto workers in Michigan, steel workers and fabricators in Pennsylvania, textile worker in the Carolinas, and the communities they live in have been done grievous harm and action has to be taken to correct the imbalances.

Today’s news comes with the report that China has warned of grave consequences if Trump starts problems. The Chinese say, “We will buy our jets and soybeans from non US suppliers if you dare to take action to carry out your campaign promises on trade.”

Really? Is it wise to be so bellicose China? The negative consequences of an interruption with trade between our two nations will impact you as well, and not in a good way.

The facts?

The US trade imbalance with China totaled $366 billion in 2015. That was a record, the previous record being $343 billion in 2014. See a pattern here?

US exports to China in 2015 totaled $116 billion. China exports to the US totaled $482 billion! Get your brain around the fact that China benefits from exports to the US that are four times larger than US exports to China.

So who stands to gain the most if the current trade policies stay in place? Who stands to take the bigger hit to their economy?

Also consider that as China gains in wealth from the trade with the US they have put aside centuries of isolation and they have taken military and diplomatic steps to gain their territorial demands in the South China Sea and Pacific. They continue to sponsor the N Koreans and take no steps to stop that regimes nuclear and missile programs.
So tell me again which of our two nations has the legitimate case to make to address the trade situation that has hollowed out so many cities in the US?
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby Carl Spackler » Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:24 pm

China can't add? I had heard that abacus thing was a mini computer too! Once again, a paradigm is shattered. One would think they need us more than we need them but there I go add and subtracting again, showing my political simplicity.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby originalchas » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:20 pm

China can't add? I had heard that abacus thing was a mini computer too! Once again, a paradigm is shattered. One would think they need us more than we need them but there I go add and subtracting again, showing my political simplicity.


If the trade situation is left unchanged where do you guys expect the trade deficit with China will be once they fully develop their domestic auto industry and their aerospace capacity?

Sending them a trillion dollars every three years, as bad as it is, will be even worse if nothing is done.

We will be left selling them chicken nuggets. Oh, they import chicken now and sell us processed food. We won't even have happy meals left to sell.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby Blue&White » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:24 pm

As a friend of mine likes to say, "there is no reason they can't make iphone here, we just have to pay $3,000 for them".

It's going to be interesting to see what he is actually able to get through Congress and what the reaction is to it. These massive import duties he's proposing are bound to result in other countries doing the same. The cost of US exports could go through the roof. I guess we're all going to find out together, though.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby originalchas » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:28 pm

As a friend of mine likes to say, "there is no reason they can't make iphone here, we just have to pay $3,000 for them".


I seriously doubt that argument is supported by facts.

It seems to me that Apple has priced and sourced their products to maximize their profits. The $$$ Apple pays per unit on labor costs to assemble their products represents a small portion of the typical Iphone cost of $600 or more. If there was an incentive to produce the phone domestically Apple would produce it here. Now the incentive is to produce it in China. Apple is happy to collect the profits and build up their cash and securities that amount to over $200 billion.

By the way, 93% of those huge reserves that Apple has accumulated is stashed overseas because our current tax policy would cost Apple 40% of their stash if they were to bring it home. That is something Trump has said he would address for all US companies facing that issue.

We can change the trade calculus with good policy that provides incentive for bringing production back home and by changing tax policy to bring trillions of corporate reserves back to be used domestically.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby Blue&White » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:47 pm

The issue with manufacturing is more than just labor. There are investments on manufacturing that China and other countries have made that, for a variety of reasons, the US has not. My same friend who made that joke also used to run a product line for a major telecom equipment manufacturer in the US and he has told me that he couldn't find proper manufacturing capability in the US. Sure, we could build them, but that takes time and money. And, even if we do, there is a whole lot more automation in manufacturing than there used to be. Iphones are not built by hand.

There is no doubt in my mind that we can do better on trade policy for this country and we have done a lot of things that have hurt American jobs. But, increases in automation and other technological enhancements have drastically reduced the human component in the process. I'd welcome more manufacturing back in this country, but it's not a panacea to our issues. It's not. It is foolish to pretend otherwise.

regarding where the cash is stored, I'm aware of how much money is stashed outside of the US. There is no easy answer to that. If you're not familiar with the last time the US did a "tax holiday" for money held overseas, go google it and see what you find. I assure you the reality did not match up with the promise at all. Again, that doesn't mean we should accept status quo.

I think Trump is a self serving scumbag who has never done anything for anyone but himself and it seems highly unlikely he's going to start now. But, I also fully accept that Hillary Clinton represented economic policies that were going to benefit a small percentage of people and preserve the status quo, and I think that is a big reason why she lost. It's unfortunate we got President Little Gropey Hands but that's the way the ball bounced. And, for people on the bottom half of the US economy, they obviously had nothing to lose by voting for him. There was no chance she was doing anything to bring those jobs back. I doubt he will either, but I get the argument that with him there is some level of hope.

We will see what happens. I'm not nearly as optimistic about him as you are, and I think he can royally screw things up. But, for good or bad, we are going to find out.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby Carl Spackler » Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:27 pm

You bring up a good point. A number of ladies accused Trump of groping. Where are the charges now? Are they suing him? If not, why not? The press had a field day with the accusations and the one in the airplane where the Octopus like grope was alleged was dispelled when her story did not stand up to eyewitness accounts or the planes structure. Accusations during a political campaign falling in October are standard practice. Accusations are that until they are either proven or dis-proven. As they say, talk is cheap. I'd be more impressed if we heard of impending charges of molestation against the president elect but suspect we won't hear a peep now that the purpose of the accusations has passed and failed.
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Re: The Trump Administration

Postby Blue&White » Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:54 pm

At one point I heard that a bunch of these women planned to sue him but no idea on what is happening. It may go away, it may come back up, who knows.
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