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"Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby psu_dad » Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:31 pm

Both companies have crappy price-to-earnings ratios, but it's all about the potential for growth in the minds of investors, which Tesla apparently has. It's the same reason Amazon's stock kept climbing in price even when they they were losing money every year.

Amazon, I totally understand. But I wouldn't touch Tesla stock with a 10-foot pole.
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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby Blue&White » Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:47 pm

Yes, I'm aware of the P/E ratio and how it impacts price. I'm not shocked that Tesla seems to be it's own private economic bubble right now. I am shocked that investors value it more than GM. Tesla is just a few steps beyond building cars in their garage.

I can't tell if investors are really high on the mystique of Elon Musk or they just really, really worried about GMs long term prospects and the potential looming pension crises. But, it's amazing that a relative start up is more valuable than GM is right now.

If you own Tesla stock, now is probably a great time to ditch it.
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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby psu_dad » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:11 pm

If things go right for Tesla politically, they could become as big as U.S. Robotics in the movie I, Robot.

By that, I mean if at some point down the road Uncle Sam is forced to get serious about Global Warming or Climate Change or whatever they're calling it now, this could be a huge windfall for Tesla. I could see the tax breaks for electric cars increasing and gasoline taxes soaring to discourage the use of fossil fuels. And Tesla would have a big head start on everyone else. If that doesn't happen, I just don't see the market for very expensive limited-range cars becoming huge. The demographic of affluent people who want to appear "earth-friendly" is not a huge one.

I agree with your bottom line. Had I invested in Tesla early, I would probably take the money and run.
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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby Blue&White » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:16 pm

Well, given that when America Was Great we were allowed to pollute drinking water and air with impunity and that is what we are heading back to, I wouldn't count on a massive serge for Tesla until at the earliest, January 22, 2021.
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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby psu_dad » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:37 pm

I think that's optimistic. Short of imminent disaster, I don't see Americans giving up their SUVs and pickup trucks, or voting for someone who tells them they must. And when I say "imminent", I mean something like verifiable proof that the depleted ozone layer is turning people into zombies.
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Re: "Too big to ...", Continuing the "new era" thread

Postby Blue&White » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:56 pm

I agree we're not giving up our gas guzzlers. But, if we go back to the 70s leven of pollution in our air and water, with rivers and lakes catching on fire, that may get people to stand up and take some notice about environmental issues. The reason the EPA exists is because when companies were unregulated with respect to how they can treat the environment, all hell broke loose. Admittedly, it won't get that bad in 4 years, and most companies aren't going to take the reputation hit for something like that, but I'd be shocked if you don't see some real, tangible issues as a result of these changes as companies scale back their oversight. I'll guarantee that, at some point, there is some big environmental issue that is directly tied to his rollback and the people who support thus will try to argue it was impossible to predict.

It will happen.
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